The setups before they print. Read before the open.
When non-US borrowers pay extra to swap into dollars, that premium telegraphs funding stress days before equities feel it. How the basis works, why it widens, and the levels that matter for risk assets.
For two decades, every gold rally lined up with falling real yields. That broke in 2022. The buyer base flipped from ETFs to central banks, and sanctions risk became a separate input the old model never priced.
Three lines from the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report subtract into a single regime variable. Most traders watch the policy rate. The slope of net liquidity is the part that actually moves the boats.
For most of the post-GFC era, owning duration paid you almost nothing extra. That regime broke after 2022. The structural rebuild of Treasury term premium is mechanical, not narrative, and most allocators are still positioned for the old world.
Japan sits on $3 trillion of net foreign assets, funded at rates the rest of the developed world forgot existed. When that structure gets tapped, US equities, EM currencies, and credit all feel the reverberation. Here's why the yen carry trade still runs global risk.
