The setups before they print. Read before the open.
Palantir's business nearly doubled while its share price nearly halved. The August 3 print showed 149% US commercial growth and a third guidance raise, and the market finally stopped selling the good news.
The S&P 500's first losing July since 2014 came in at just 0.13%, and that flat number hid a 21.2% semiconductor collapse alongside Microsoft's record $450 billion single-day gain. Nvidia and Broadcom finished the month green, which is the detail that kills the AI-is-over read.
Our July 29 call said the $60,000 floor holds through the Fed. It resolved on July 31 with bitcoin closing the month at $63,038.65, up 7.5%. Here is the full audit, including the half of our reasoning that was wrong.
Amazon raised its 2026 capex guide to $220 billion and the stock still gapped 15.3%. The $496 billion AWS backlog is why, and Apple's same-night 7.3% drop shows what the market is now sorting for.
Microsoft added roughly $450 billion of market value in one session, the largest one-day gain any company has ever posted, while Meta got sold almost 8% on the same earnings night. The split was not about capex size. It was about where each gap opened relative to the range already on the chart.
WTI crude ripped 6.2% to $84.20 on July 29 after strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure. The war premium July had bled out re-armed in a single session, and the August 2 OPEC+ meeting is the next swing.
Bitcoin sold off 2.5% to $63,300 ahead of a coin-flip Fed meeting, but the $60,000 floor has already held through a war, $100 oil, and a week of ETF outflows. Here's why the pre-Fed panic sold the middle of the range as if it were the top.
A financing rumor, not an earnings miss, knocked Nvidia 5% to $196.51 and lost the $200 handle. The $250 billion OpenAI backstop revived the AI trade's oldest fear: circular financing.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.15% on Friday to 28,128.34, and the driver wasn't AI. It was the 10-year yield at 4.7% and a Fed the market now expects to hike, not cut.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.6% from its July 10 record as the Magnificent Seven shed $797 billion in a single session. The trigger wasn't weak earnings. It was capex, and the top we flagged three weeks ago just resolved.
Alphabet posted record revenue, 82% cloud growth and a $514 billion backlog, and the stock still fell about 7% to $318.34. The whole selloff was about the capex bill, not the demand. Here is what that gap is telling you.
Tesla beat revenue by more than $2 billion and still crashed 14.5% on July 23. That gap between a record print and a brutal tape has a name: the beat-and-fade. Here is what it tells you about the structure.
